Q1 Early Stocking: How to Plan Inventory for Chinese New Year

Worried about inventory running out in Q1?
Seen shipping slow down every Chinese New Year?
Tired of scrambling when factories suddenly go quiet?

If you sell online and source from China, this topic matters.
Every year. No exceptions.

Let’s talk about Q1 early stocking and how to plan inventory for Chinese New Year without panic, overbuying, or cash flow pain.

I’ll keep it practical.
No theory for theory’s sake.

Why Chinese New Year Breaks Inventory Plans

Chinese New Year isn’t just a holiday.
It’s a full supply chain pause.

During this period:

• Factories stop production

• Workers travel home

• Shipping capacity tightens

• Lead times double or worse

Even if your supplier says “we’ll try,” reality usually wins.

That’s why Q1 early stocking isn’t optional.
It’s risk management.

What Q1 Early Stocking Really Means

Early stocking doesn’t mean “buy as much as possible.”

It means:

• Forecasting demand realistically

• Building a buffer before production stops

• Protecting your best-selling SKUs

You’re not betting.
You’re planning.

When You Should Start Planning

Earlier than most sellers think.

A good rule:

• Planning starts in Q4

• Orders are confirmed before factories close

• Inventory is positioned before logistics slow down

Waiting until January is already late.

Step 1: Identify Your Critical SKUs

Not all products deserve early stock.

Focus on:

• Top 20% of SKUs by revenue

• Products with steady demand

• Items with long production lead times

These SKUs keep your store alive during Chinese New Year.

Pro tip

If cash is tight,
protect revenue first, not variety.

Step 2: Forecast Demand Conservatively

This is where many sellers go wrong.

Avoid emotional forecasting.

Use:

• Last year’s Q1 sales

• Recent 30–90 day averages

• Promotion plans (if any)

Then:

• Add a buffer

• Don’t double numbers “just in case”

Overstock hurts as much as stockouts.

Step 3: Build a Smart Buffer (Not Panic Stock)

A buffer is calculated.

Typical buffer ranges:

• 20–40% for stable products

• Higher for fast movers

• Lower for trend-driven items

The goal is coverage, not excess.

Step 4: Lock Production Before Factories Close

Factories don’t shut down overnight.

But capacity fills fast.

What to do:

• Confirm production slots early

• Finalize packaging and specs

• Avoid last-minute changes

Once factories stop,
nothing moves.

Step 5: Position Inventory Strategically

Where inventory sits matters.

Options include:

• China fulfillment centers

• Destination-country warehouses

• Hybrid setups

China-based storage works well as a buffer.
It gives flexibility without FBA overcommitment.

Step 6: Plan Shipping Before the Rush

Shipping delays aren’t random.

They happen because everyone waits.

To avoid this:

• Book space early

• Choose stable routes

• Avoid peak cutoff dates

Predictable shipping beats fast shipping every time.

A Short Real Example

A Shopify seller I spoke with learned this the hard way.

One year, they waited until January to reorder.

Result:

• Factory closed early

• Orders piled up

• Refunds followed

The next year, they planned Q1 early stocking.

Same products.
Same ads.

But this time:

• Inventory was ready

• Shipping stayed stable

• Revenue didn’t dip

The difference wasn’t luck.
It was timing.

Common Q1 Early Stocking Mistakes

Ordering Everything

Early stocking is selective.

Protect what sells.
Pause what doesn’t.

Ignoring Cash Flow

Inventory ties up cash.

Plan:

• Partial shipments

• Staged production

• Rolling replenishment

Liquidity matters.

Forgetting About Returns

Q1 still has returns from Q4.

Factor this into inventory calculations.

How Much Inventory Is “Enough”?

There’s no universal number.

But a solid target is:

• Cover demand through factory downtime

• Plus a small recovery window after Chinese New Year

This avoids emergency shipping.

What About New Products?

Be careful.

For untested SKUs:

• Order smaller batches

• Avoid heavy Chinese New Year exposure

• Focus on proven items

Chinese New Year is not a testing period.

FAQs

“When do factories usually close?”

Typically 1–3 weeks around Chinese New Year, sometimes longer.

“Should I air ship inventory?”

Only if margins allow.
Plan to avoid it.

“Is early stocking risky?”

Not if based on data.

“Can I store inventory in China during Chinese New Year?”

Yes, many fulfillment centers operate with limited staff.

“What if demand drops?”

Conservative forecasting protects you.

Final Thoughts

Q1 early stocking is about control.

You can’t stop Chinese New Year.
But you can prepare for it.

When inventory is planned early:

• Operations stay calm

• Customers stay happy

• Revenue stays consistent

That’s how smart sellers treat Q1.

Not as a surprise.
But as a season they already planned for.